Sunday, March 6, 2016

Fox News | America's Election HQ - March 5, 2016

4 comments:

  1. Part I

    WE SHOULD ALL BE TRYING TO GIVE TRUMP ALL THE ENCOURAGEMENT AND SUPPORT THAT WE CAN - whether it’s a small DONATION or VOLUNTEERING. Since I tend to avoid online transactions, I mailed a check for the Trump campaign. However, that does not mean being oblivious to reality (Exhibit A: http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/03/02/super-tuesday-debrief-primary-results-and-anticipated-gope-reactions/comment-page-3/#comment-2180691 ; Exhibit B: Sundance – You apparently incorrectly posted (regarding Super Saturday) “Trump Wins Most Delegates of Day!!”)


    Folks – It’s about time that we at least acknowledge any weaknesses of Team Trump’s campaign in order that we could try to improve our chances before it would be too late. Unfortunately, the death by a thousand cuts against the campaign is starting to show results with low information – and worse misinformation voters. A certain infamous propaganda minister reportedly said that if you repeat a lie often enough it’s believed.


    My biggest theme so far is that Team Trump needs to spend more in advertising to counter the lies. This needs to be both defensively to correct any misimpressions about Trump and offensively to show why voting for Cruz et al. would be a mistake. Furthermore, Trump should invest in opposition research.


    According to http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results (as of March 6, 2016 (approximately 1 am Eastern Time)) the delegate allocation (from Super Saturday) is so far: Cruz – 64, Trump – 49, Rubio – 13, Kasich – 9 – that’s apparently 135 delegates out of 155 delegates that were up for grabs. Also, if you compare polls regarding Kansas and Louisiana – it clearly seems that Cruz over performed and Trump underperformed ( http://tinyurl.com/j5mr8ry , http://tinyurl.com/hrvrg4j ). The question is why? Was Trump hurt by the debate? Does Team Cruz have a better ground game? Is it the relentless negative ads against Trump?


    It’s interesting to compare the results from yesterday in Kansas to 4 years ago. Four years ago the Kansas results (to quote https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Kansas,_2012 regarding the top 4 candidates from Wikipedia) were: Santorum – 15,290 votes (51.2 %) (Delegates: 33), Romney – 6,250 votes (20.9 %) (Delegates: 7), Gingrich – 4,298 votes (14.4 %) (Delegates: 0), Paul – 3,767 votes (12.6 %) (Delegates: 0).


    Last I checked the results from yesterday in Kansas (http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ks/Rep ) are as follows: Cruz - 35,207 votes (48.2%) (Delegates: 24), Trump – 17,062 votes (23.3 %) (Delegates: 9), Rubio – 12,189 votes (16.7 %) (Delegates: 6), Kasich – 7,796 votes (10.7%) (Delegates: 1). I’m struck by the high voter turnout for Cruz; this suggests a better ground game or more fanatical voters.

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  2. Part II

    Also relative to a General Election it seems the caucuses (in Kansas) have very low turnout. For example: In 2012, in the general presidential election, apparently Romney received 689,809 votes and Obama received 439,908 votes ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Kansas,_2012 ) . It’s as if the overwhelming majority of the people of Kansas don't care who the Republican nominee will be.


    Although my analysis so far has been pessimistic, based on a cursory review of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012 , Trump doesn’t seem to be doing that much differently than Romney was – albeit Trump sustained a huge loss in Texas to its Canadian born Senator Cruz. Ideological differences aside, Cruz and Rubio have resumes almost identical to Obama; I believe Team Trump should start pounding that point.


    From Trump’s press conference ( https://youtu.be/qWZHgZ5L004 ) I got the sense of Trump’s disgust with the media and that Trump believes that there are states like New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio that Cruz wouldn’t be competitive in. Perhaps, but Rubio and Kasich continue to siphon votes. The question is whether or not Trump will be able to get the 50 % + 1 delegate with everything that’s being thrown at him. Trump also pointed out that a third party attempt to derail him [as the Republican nominee] would have catastrophic consequences for the U.S. Supreme Court.


    Indeed, in a more typical primary season a candidate like Rubio and Kasich would have dropped out. But this is not typical; it’s all about the establishment against Trump and thus Rubio and Kasich apparently continue for the purpose of being spoilers (via a brokered convention). Although Cruz is purportedly hated by the establishment, Cruz is nevertheless part of the establishment - as evident by Romney’s horrific speech.


    In short, Team Trump needs to improve its game given THIS UNPRECEDENTED ATTACK BY THE ESTABLISHMENT (and that means more effective advertising and ground game). Also I’m not sure what Trump should do about the debates. In the last two debates Trump was on the defensive.


    THERE ALSO SEEMS TO BE AN EXCELLENT COMMENT REGARDING HOW TO VOLUNTEER FOR TEAM TRUMP AT http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/03/06/march-6th-2016-presidential-election-open-discussion-thread/comment-page-1/#comment-2205934 posted from “Katherine McCoun” “March 6, 2016 at 12:47 am”

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  3. VOLUNTEERING FOR TEAM TRUMP - I hope the following copy and pasted from the “March 6, 2016 at 12:47 am” posting of “Katherine McCoun” is accurate (

    http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/03/06/march-6th-2016-presidential-election-open-discussion-thread/comment-page-1/#comment-2205934 ):

    "
    Katherine McCoun says:
    March 6, 2016 at 12:47 am
    Many people have expressed interest in helping Mr. Trump with his Ground Game. Good News – YOU can be part of the ground game and be “boots on the ground” for Mr. Trump! I have read that some people would like to volunteer but are not sure how.
    I am in no way speaking for the campaign. I am just sharing what I have found as I have searched each state and the general campaign and posting from my own experience and my own views. Ways that may be available to volunteer as it varies from state to state, just based on my observation: make phone calls, place yard signs to those who have expressed interest, place the yard signs at the polling places on voting day, be at the polling places on voting day to hand out literature & watch for problems, be a local, state or national delegate (learn more how to do this as that sounds really interesting to do!), being a point person for distribution of materials in counties or smaller cities, answer phone calls in your local office and many more things I am sure that I don’t even know about as I, too, am just a volunteer!
    Below are several ways to contact the campaign:
    1) Register with your state here –
    https://www.donaldjtrump.com/states/
    2) Register w/Trump campaign if your state does not yet have an office here –
    https://www.donaldjtrump.com
    -choose “get involved” in from the drop down menu in the far right hand corner
    -fill out sign up info
    NOTE: Be sure to click the box “I would like to volunteer” or you are just signing up for updates
    To help people get involved I have begun putting together info for each state in addition to the above methods. All numbers posted below are in public forums, are posted to give out to the general public &/or I have received permission to publish on a public forum. Some Facebook pages are unofficial pages but I thought be helpful. If you are already set up in callfire, many of these states already have call campaigns set up and ready to go!
    Idaho/8th, 32 delegates/proportional
    info.id@donaldtrump.com 646-736-1779
    Michigan/8th, 59 delegates/proportional
    —CJ Galdes (616) 821-6389 cjgaldes@donaldtrump.com
    also
    info.mi@donaldtrump.com 734-224-3843
    Mississippi/8th, 50 delegates//proportional
    https://www.facebook.com/pages/MS-Trump-Headquarters/225683624434089
    (601) 957-1113 Ext 110
    A Rockin’ team in Mississippi!!!! They look like they have an awesome group of volunteers with great leadership and are rolling right along to Tuesday!

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  4. [CON”T]
    Hawaii/8th, 19 delegates/proportional – caucus
    646.736.1779
    https://www.facebook.com/Hawaii-for-Donald-Trump-893497880732071/
    Florida15th, 99 delegates/winner take all
    info.fl@donaldtrump.com 941-777-5222
    Illinois/15th, 69 delegates/winner take all
    646-736-1779 Info.IL@donaldtrump.com
    Kent Gray – director of Illinois campaign
    North Carolina/ 15th, 72 delegates/proportional
    info.nc@donaldtrump.com (980) 272-7561
    https://www.facebook.com/northcarolinafordonaldtrump/
    Director, NC: Earl Phillip https://twitter.com/elphillip
    Regional office in Fayetteville, NC – 252-387-8678
    https://www.facebook.com/CumberlandCountyforDonaldTrump
    Missouri/15th, 52 delegates/winner take all
    Ohio/15th, 66 winner take all
    —Robert Scott, he will respond rapidly! rscott@donaldtrump.com
    https://www.facebook.com/OhioForTrump/?ref=br_rs which has a number – 9377191280
    also
    https://www.facebook.com/Ohio-for-Donald-Trump-2016-182398882099412/?ref=br_rs
    And a fantastic web site here for Ashtabula County: http://middleclassfortrump.com
    Arizona/22nd, 58 delegates/winner take all
    Info.AZ@donaldtrump.com (520) 314-2135
    https://www.facebook.com/AZforTrump2016/?fref=ts
    Charles Munoz – state director
    Thayer Vershoor – deputy state director
    Utah/22nd, 40 delegates/proportional
    I have just listed the states through the end of March. Be the part of the Ground Game! Sorry post is so long! Just excited after a solid, winning day for Mr. Trump!
    "

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